If you were hoping the memory market might finally stabilize in 2026, it’s time to reset expectations. Japanese memory manufacturer Kioxia has confirmed that its entire NAND flash production volume for 2026 is already sold out.
The statement came from Shunsuke Nakato, Managing Director of Kioxia’s Memory Business Unit, during an interview with Korean outlet Digital Daily. According to Nakato, the root cause is no mystery: AI demand is consuming memory at an unprecedented rate. As companies continue investing aggressively in AI—largely driven by fear of falling behind—the imbalance between supply and demand is expected to persist well into 2027.
Interestingly, Kioxia is not responding with a “highest bidder wins” strategy. Instead, the company is prioritizing existing long-term customers and honoring contractual commitments—a rare show of discipline in a tight market. That said, even loyal customers are not immune: year-over-year price increases of up to 30% are now becoming the norm.
Another notable takeaway from the interview is Nakato’s clear skepticism toward QLC (Quad-Level Cell) NAND. While SK Hynix recently introduced a 321-layer QLC NAND chip and Micron launched its PCIe 5.0-based Micron 3610 QLC NVMe SSD, Kioxia is taking a more cautious stance.
Nakato points to endurance, lifespan, and performance limitations as unresolved issues with QLC. His position is clear: instead of pushing more bits into each cell, structural improvements—such as those found in 8th-generation NAND—offer a more reliable long-term path.
As for the broader memory supply crisis, the message is familiar but increasingly sobering. Some industry analysts are now suggesting that meaningful relief may not arrive until 2028 or later. This is no longer a short-term disruption—it’s a structural shift driven by AI, data centers, and accelerated compute workloads.
Still, it’s not all bad news. Kioxia plans to introduce new NAND products throughout 2026, and the company continues to expand and optimize production at its Yokkaichi and Kitakami facilities in Japan.
Yokkaichi is already one of the world’s largest flash memory manufacturing sites, and a second fab at the Kitakami location is expected to reach full-scale production later this year. However, even with these expansions, expectations should remain realistic. Similar efforts by major players like SK Hynix have shown that capacity additions take time to translate into real market relief.
The bottom line is simple:
As AI accelerates, memory scarcity is becoming the new normal. 2026 won’t bring relief—and even 2027 should be viewed with caution.